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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2016-11-05T04:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2016-11-05T04:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/11494/-1
CME Note: Filament Eruption off the northern Hemisphere giving a very wide-angle partial halo. Another CME came off the farside and eastern limb at a similar time. Evident in SOHO and STEREO imagery after 05/0200UTC.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2016-11-09T05:28Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 5.0

Predicted Arrival Time: 2016-11-08T00:00Z (-9.0h, +6.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 40.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 2.2

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2016-11-05T10:07Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 706
Longitude (deg): W019
Latitude (deg): N17
Half-angular width (deg): 28

Notes: 
Space weather advisor: Mark Seltzer

Lead Time: 76.47 hour(s)
Difference: 29.47 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2016-11-06T01:00Z

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